Bitcoin floats almost $ 103,700. There is a growing uncertainty in its price action as the worldwide tensions rise. Retail sentiment also weakens, which contributes to the pressure on BTC. But the current dip can simply be a cooling-off phase, and not the end of the bull cycle.
Retail sentiment finds April LOS points
Crypto analysis company Santiment recently shared that the retail sentiment has become strongly negative and has been the lowest point since the beginning of April. This is similar to levels that were shown in April, just before Bitcoin recovered. With bearish comments that rise, the panic can indicate a rebound.
The FED rates are also stable, so BTC is stuck between $ 100k and $ 110 K.
A healthy cooling phase?
The Cryptomarkt is currently in one Slow correction phase. Altcoins has been falling since December, while Bitcoin is stuck between $ 100k and $ 107k. Ethereum is struggling below $ 3,000, and the total trade volume falls, which is clear signs that retail investors remain for the time being.
However, there have been no major crashes or negative events. This is a typical cooling period within a larger Opt, comparable to what happened in 2017 and 2021. These phases often follow large rallies and can take a few months.
Looking ahead there is also a positive macros signal. The Fed can lower the rates in September, with a chance of 71.8% according to CME Fedwatch. This could stimulate the crypto markets, and even the anticipation of tariff reductions can eliminate sentiment and bring life back to risk companies.
Cycle can extend until 2026
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal also believes that the current cryptomarkt resembles 2017 when Bitcoin rose steadily before he exploded in December. He notes that macro conditions indicate that this cycle can be longer than expected, possibly extends to Q2 2026.
Many long traders were recently swept away from Binance when open interest fell. This “clearance” happened immediately after the Fed had strengthened the tariff break. With fewer traders now in risky positions and trends from the past that show that Bitcoin often rises after such events, Cryptoquant Analysts see this as a potential arrangement for a Bitcoin trouble.